Prediction time!
There are only 5 days to go til the big show, so let's break down EVERY MOTHERFUCKING CATEGORY, in reverse order, and i'll give my thoughts on each win, which film i want to win and which one is going to.
Of course, i have no goddamn idea. I've seen almost everything here, but it makes me no expert, just a guy with no friends and too much free time. Here we go!
WANNA WIN! The effects in First Man are just so spectacular to me, i was blown away when i saw that in the theatre.
GONNA WIN? It's a two-horse race between Infinity War and First Man, i think and it'll be one of those two for sure.
WANNA WIN! The only category with three nominees as always, the right ones were picked. I didn't see the obscure Border but i heard it's tremendously weird. Vice is my pick.
GONNA WIN? Vice might have this locked up because the makeup on Bale is just so incredible, but the hairpieces in Mary Queen of Scots were something to behold.
Live Action Short
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
WANNA WIN! Yeah i didn't see any of these.
GONNA WIN? Yeah i didn't see any of these.
WANNA WIN! The one i saw and really loved, Bao.
GONNA WIN? The only one anybody saw or heard of, Bao.
WANNA WIN! What was done in First Man is amazing, but what was done in Roma was jaw-dropping. It should win every technical award it's nominated for.
GONNA WIN? Man, Roma I hope but I could see a sneaky win for A Quiet Place here, a movie i am too much of a pussy to watch.
WANNA WIN! The editing in BlacKkKlansman is absolutely incredible, the best in a Spike Lee film in almost 30 years. Loved it.
GONNA WIN? I think BlacKkKlansman might pull this off, but watch for votes to go to The Favourite as well for its quirky shooting.
WANNA WIN! I hoped so much to see a nod to Mary Queen of Scots here as well, and it got one thankfully. It's my darkhorse candidate in this category even though it has little chance.
GONNA WIN? This is the category The Favourite was BORN to win, and there is virtually no chance that it does not.
WANNA WIN! Roma, again, is just so unfathomably amazing in its sound design that it would be unthinkable that it lost here, but i'll admit i'm rooting for First Man again.
GONNA WIN? Look, it just has to be Roma. I will never forget what watching that in a theatre was like.
WANNA WIN! Wildly wide open category here, but my favorite might actually be The Favourite and not Roma for the incredible sets in that film. This is also the first category on the list i think Black Panther might has a real shot of winning.
GONNA WIN? Again, this is maybe the most wide open unpredictable list of nominations of the entire ceremony. I have no idea. All these movies justly earned their spots here. Again, do not be shocked at a random Black Panther win here; it's just the kind of low-states award that the Academy will bestow to the film so it doesn't get shut out for the night.
WANNA WIN! As you all know, my wheelhouse and most important category of the Oscars. I'm still floored that Won't You Be My Neighbor AND Three Identical Strangers both missed out on nominations here, but all the ones nominated are still at the least good, and some great. Even though my theatre experience was unforgettable for Free Solo, i was just mesmerized when i watched Hale County This Morning, This Evening last week, and not a day has gone by since then that i haven't thought about the movie. A profound documentary and my favorite of the nominations.
GONNA WIN? It's a wide open field as well here. Minding the Gap has huge momentum and is a big favorite to a lot of people, but i was underwhelmed by it last night. It may still win. RBG will get a lot of sentimental liberal votes -- hey, i thought it was great too -- but i don't think can win. I think Free Solo might pull it off in a field of all deserving candidates.
WANNA WIN! This is Roma's win so hard, so easily, that there is no competition at all. Several good films here, but c'mon.
GONNA WIN? There's some sneaky build-up for the beautiful Cold War, but Roma was made to win Best Cinematography in a landslide.
WANNA WIN! I saw three of these and liked Lifeboat the best, for sure.
GONNA WIN? Many people disagree with me. The powerful 7-minute A Night at the Garden might pull off the win here, as a dark statement against white supremacy.
WANNA WIN! Maybe the category i care the least about, other than the shorts i didn't see. But really, "Shallow" was made to win the Oscar.
GONNA WIN? "Shallow," please.
WANNA WIN! I was thrilled to see Desplat get a nomination for Isle of Dogs, but my favorite of the list is Bitell's score for If Beale Street Could Talk. Beauty, personified.
GONNA WIN? An open field in this category, and another that i could see Black Panther sneaking in a win so it's not shut out. But if i had to put money down, i actually think Desplat wins it here.
WANNA WIN! Look, if anything other than Spider-Man wins here, this award is an absolute joke. The best animated movie in YEARS is light years ahead of anything else on this list.
GONNA WIN? If it's not Spider-Man, like Werner Herzog i am eating my shoe.
WANNA WIN! Four of these are incredible and one is just good (Cold War), so it's a banner year for this category even if one of the most egregious snubs left out South Korea's Burning. But nothing beats Roma here.
GONNA WIN? As strange (and maybe fitting) as it would be for Roma to lose this award and win like 7 more, it's just not going to happen even with a few other excellent nominees.
WANNA WIN! With the only nomination of the night for my #1 film of the year, First Reformed, i'm rooting for Schrader here with all my might.
GONNA WIN? This is tough. I think First Reformed can pull it off, but inexplicably i see the misguided Academy leaning towards the bullshit of Green Book, despite my pleas.
Adapted ScreenplayThe Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Joel Coen and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman, Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, and Spike Lee -
letterboxd.com/v9733xa/film/blackkklansman/Can You Ever Forgive Me?, Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty -
letterboxd.com/v9733xa/film/can-you-ever-forgive-me/If Beale Street Could Talk, Barry Jenkins -
letterboxd.com/v9733xa/film/if-beale-street-could-talk/A Star Is Born, Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, and Will Fetters -
letterboxd.com/v9733xa/film/a-star-is-born-2018/ WANNA WIN! Jenkins' adaptation of James Baldwin is just so clearly the best of the year, to me there is no competition. Only the adaptation of BlacKkKlansman really is in the same universe.
GONNA WIN? However, i can see BlacKkKlansman winning anyway, even though this is Jenkins' award to win.
WANNA WIN! Could it finally be? In Spike Lee's FIRST ever nomination for Directing, he really might have a chance to pull of the win of his career. He is for sure my sentimental pick.
GONNA WIN? It's a three horse race with Spike, Alfonso, and Yorgos trying to nudge ahead in this very international field. Any one of them could do it, but i'm going to call this my upset/historical victory of the evening and say that Spike Lee will win his first directing Oscar and earn one of the biggest standing ovations of the year.
WANNA WIN! Richard E. Grant is SO good in the criminally-underseen film Can You Ever Forgive Me? and i hope so so much that he wins this. He was just incredible in that movie.
GONNA WIN? Unfortunately, Marhershala Ali will win this award easily for the horseshit in Green Book. He's a great actor, and arguably gives a great performance, but the film just is so awful that it's hard to swallow.
WANNA WIN! Even though she has no chance at all, i was elated to see the magical Marina de Tavira earn a nomination here for Roma, who i think actually gives the best performance in the film. But oh yes i'm still rooting for her!
GONNA WIN? Emma and Rachel will split The Favourite vote and cause Regina King to rightfully win. If Emma Stone wasn't nominated for her good but not great performance, i'd call this for Rachel Weisz who is the best think about that movie. But King is so powerful and commanding in a supporting role, and crushed a bunch of other award shows, that i think she comes out on top here.
WANNA WIN! I don't have a huge sentimental favorite here, but i'll admit i was so taken aback by how good Melissa McCarthy was that i'm hoping that by some miracle she can win. It won't happen, much like her co-star Grant, but it's a non-zero chance.
GONNA WIN? This is a two-woman race between Olivia Colman and Glenn Close, and it may come down to who will give the best speech. The VERY British Colman in a wildly funny and unpredictable acceptance? Or the legendary Close after her seventh nomination FINALLY earning her Oscar. I give it to Glenn by a nose, with the other longest and loudest standing ovation of the night.
WANNA WIN? Vice has a lot of problems, but i still liked it mostly because Christian Bale is remarkable as Dick Cheney, and rises above the other SNL parodies in the film that i didn't like much to be an uncanny take on the VP. It's his best role in years and he was tremendous.
GONNA WIN? This will finally be your one win for the part-maligned and part-adored Bohemian Rhapsody, that without Rami Malek is a terrible movie, and with him is merely watchable because he is so great. Say what you want about the bad film, he's still excellent, and i won't be upset when he wins here and stares unblinking into the audience.
WANNA WIN! Well, the big award of the night is as wide open as it's been in many years, which will inexplicably help the one film here that was only begrudgingly released in theatres, Roma. It's also my favorite of these, by far, and it would be amazing for a foreign-language black-and-white film about a Mexican domestic worker in the 1970s win BEST PICTURE. Think about that. It's a big goddamn deal.
GONNA WIN? I do think Roma has it. There are so many strikes against the other films: Green Book is a fraudulent mess, Bohemian Rhapsody had a pedophile director and a false narrative, Black Panther is a freaking superhero movie where the final act looks like a PS4 cutaway scene, A Star is Born has literally been done 4 times before, Vice is an angry and polarizing attempt to be Michael Moore in narrative. Honestly the one rival to Roma that doesn't have many or any blemishes? BlacKkKlansman. Really. It really could happen. I doubt it, but there's a coalition of voters that could sway that way. Still, i think Roma does the impossible and becomes the first ever Best Picture winner in a foreign language.
Phew.
Your turn!